Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 1.905162 2.276409 2.693059 3.194167 3.779301 4.439711 5.240279
2026-02-08 1.377359 1.849811 2.437254 3.216648 4.218268 5.456366 7.096095
2026-02-15 1.055675 1.562478 2.248057 3.232920 4.598999 6.412391 8.984122
2026-02-22 0.826434 1.331341 2.065964 3.195300 4.865660 7.218221 10.747460
2026-03-01 0.634684 1.105486 1.837643 3.034278 4.908611 7.690155 12.073208
2026-03-08 0.518113 0.968153 1.710899 2.992361 5.102773 8.379774 13.766322
2026-03-15 0.432823 0.863334 1.613898 2.974494 5.319250 9.111161 15.583101
2026-03-22 0.393695 0.831512 1.632125 3.146740 5.860313 10.402866 18.406289
2026-03-29 0.349562 0.780769 1.606729 3.234967 6.262626 11.500157 21.009510
2026-04-05 0.317577 0.747370 1.606849 3.366706 6.752411 12.786923 24.045291
2026-04-12 0.276143 0.685668 1.541423 3.362369 6.987737 13.645506 26.407608
2026-04-19 0.232199 0.609201 1.433144 3.256099 7.012841 14.121350 28.119843
2026-04-26 0.193549 0.537572 1.324927 3.137640 7.006188 14.550212 29.813396
2026-05-03 0.169156 0.495265 1.273958 3.133081 7.228545 15.435177 32.446894
2026-05-10 0.149065 0.459438 1.231618 3.140753 7.475834 16.390042 35.297943
2026-05-17 0.129226 0.419657 1.172856 3.101616 7.615897 17.140056 37.806237
2026-05-24 0.106584 0.366339 1.070864 2.944195 7.472496 17.289813 39.109339
2026-05-31 0.092613 0.335117 1.019928 2.903197 7.587948 17.991853 41.608858
2026-06-07 0.081513 0.310001 0.980763 2.885748 7.755499 18.819387 44.439862
2026-06-14 0.078290 0.309835 1.010887 3.053275 8.387587 20.725379 49.744224
2026-06-21 0.072525 0.299655 1.010588 3.139097 8.827163 22.235355 54.296641
2026-06-28 0.068513 0.294710 1.024961 3.267262 9.387253 24.067296 59.704203
2026-07-05 0.061246 0.275932 0.993963 3.263041 9.605945 25.122886 63.437125